“If computers can trade stocks and drive cars, will they soon outperform our best sales people, replace court judges, win Oscars and Grammys, buy up and develop prime parcels of real estate for their own purposes? And what will “they” think of “us”?
The plain fact is there is no “they.” This is an anthropomorphic conceit borne of endless Hollywood blockbusters, reinforced by the gratuitous inclusion of human-like features in public AI technology demonstrations, such as natural-sounding voices, facial expressions, and simulated displays of human emotions. Each of these techniques has valuable application to human-computer interfaces, but not when their primary effect is to fool or mislead. Attempts to dress up significant AI accomplishments with human-oid flourishes does the field a disservice by raising inappropriate questions and implying there is more there than meets the eye.” Prof. Jerry Kaplan, Communications of the ACM
Majority of decision modeling experts agree that decision models producing business decisions should be able to explain why these decisions were made. Silvie Spreeuwenberg even wrote that “Advice Without Explanation Is Not Very Intelligent“. Tomorrow FICO will run a special webinar “Unlocking the Full Potential of your Business Outcomes with Explainable Decisions“. They correctly say: “Only with explainable decisions will you be able to identify alternative approaches, project an accurate range of consequences, and deliver potentially game-changing results.” We would like to create a list of articles that deal with decision explanations. We ask our readers to post here their comments with the proper references. Vendors are welcome to describe how their BR&DM products produce explanations.
In this post I’m arguing that the use of database tables to represent sales promotions is not a good idea to compare with the use of rules or decision tables. The promotion example in the Jan-2018 Challenge was a very simple one. Unfortunately, in the real world, business users are often not so accommodating. Towards the end of this document I’ve listed some examples of promotions that are in production at real customer sites. The main thing to notice is the wide variety of the various promotions. Continue reading
With tax season upon us, our February Challenge deals with a quite simple decision table created by a business analyst from a tax agency. How would you represent this table using your favorite business rules and decision management tool?
Andrew Ng is known as the founder of the Google Brain, co-founder of Coursera, and Baidu’s chief scientist (he also was a presenter in one of our early Decision Camps). Today Andrew Ng is one of the most recognizable names in the machine learning community. He left Baidu in 2017 and quickly launched a number of new AI projects, including the Deeplearning.ai course and Landing.ai, a project that aims to bring AI to manufacturing companies. It turns out that what he was really working on, though, was his AI Fund, for which he has raised more than $175M. This isn’t going to be a traditional venture fund. Instead, Ng and his team will use the money to initiate new AI businesses. Read more
Alan Trefler presented “The next AI frontier – software that writes software” at the World Economic Forum. In particular, he wrote: “The foundational knowledge to create self-writing, self-evolving software exists today… For businesses, this means that workers in different roles can collaborate to construct app functionalities in real time. Even complex analytical constructs can be visually modeled, simplifying the incorporation of semi-structured and unstructured data. Projects that once took dozens of programmers, months of time, and tens of thousands (if not millions) of dollars may now only take days, weeks, or months with internal staff.” Continue reading
Dr. Bob Moore submitted his Drools-based solution for our Jan-2018 Challenge. This is a third solution, and we still are looking for a pure DMN FEEL solution. Bob also wrote: “One of the fun aspects of the DMC challenges is seeing how many different takes people can have on the same ‘problem’. And usually the shorter and less specific a challenge statement is, the more it allows free-rein to one’s imagination.” Continue reading