It’s better to be approximately right than precisely wrong

Posted on May 28, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

This statement is from the post by Adam DeJans Jr: “I’ve worked with many companies (from logistics to manufacturing) and one pattern stands out. There’s often too much emphasis on improving forecast accuracy, and too little thought about what really matters: the decisions being made and the cost of being wrong. Instead of asking how far off the forecast was, I ask how much it cost me. I want a metric that reflects business realities. If I miss high on a forecast, what does it do to my bottom line? If I miss low, what opportunities did I lose? The right loss function captures that asymmetry.

And perhaps most importantly, I never assume my forecasts are correct. Uncertainty is always part of the problem. Ignoring it doesn’t make it go away. Every planning system should explicitly account for uncertainty, and every good decision process should be built to handle it.” Link

Posted in Forecasting, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Building Business Capability conference: June 9-12

Posted on May 26, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

The Building Business Capability (BBC) conference will take place on June 9-12, 2025, Phoenix, AZ. This conference focuses on enhancing leadership skills, digital transformation, and various business methodologies, including Business Analysis and Business Architecture. AI from the Business Analyst’s perspective will be among the most popular topics. Website

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The glorification of mediocrity

Posted on May 26, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Stéphane Dalbera posted on LinkedIn: There’s a troubling narrative spreading across LinkedIn:
“To help beginners, we must dumb everything down.”
—
Strip down the language.
Avoid abstractions.
Stick to the bare minimum.
Pretend the standard library barely exists.
—
Let’s call this what it is: The glorification of mediocrity. Link

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Posted in Trends | Leave a comment

Can AI Agents Replace Professional Engineering Intelligence?

Posted on May 26, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Pieter van Schalkwyk: “Most current AI agents are sophisticated chatbots with language models. They excel at content creation but cannot make professional decisions. This is like asking a talented writer to perform brain surgery.” “When Microsoft Copilot writes a maintenance report, it creates text without understanding stress cycles or failure modes. When Salesforce agents handle customer complaints, they optimize conversations without knowing the difference between service issues and safety problems. These systems look competent but have no real substance.” Link

Posted in Artificial Intelligence, Human Intelligence | Leave a comment

Large Companies vs Startups in the age of AI

Posted on May 21, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Andrew NG states that “large companies are slower than startups for many reasons. But why are even 3-person, scrappy teams within large companies slower than startups of a similar size? One major reason is that large companies have more to lose, and cannot afford for a small team to build and ship a feature that leaks sensitive information, damages the company brand, hurts revenue, invites regulatory scrutiny, or otherwise damages an important part of the business. But if engineers need sign-off from 5 vice presidents before they’re even allowed to launch a minimum viable product to run an experiment, how can they ever discover what customers want, iterate quickly, or invent any meaningful new product?” He recommends a way out of this conundrum. They can create a sandbox environment for teams to experiment in a way that strictly limits the downside risk. Link

Posted in Artificial Intelligence, Innovation | Leave a comment

Java at 30 Years Young

Posted on May 20, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Java turns 30 on May 23rd! Join the Java YouTube channel on May 22nd starting at 13:00 UTC for a 6-hour live stream covering Java’s evolution, its global impact, and how it shapes the future of programming. Link

Posted in Java | Leave a comment

AI and Customer Service

Posted on May 17, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

“Over a year after claiming that its AI chatbot could do the work of 700 representatives, Klarna is turning back to people to help with customer service work. The shift highlights the need for the option to speak to a human in customer service — and to use AI as a supplement, not a replacement, for staff,” Link

Posted in Artificial Intelligence, Customer service | Leave a comment

How to determine the exact state of a business process with thousands of ongoing cases, in real-time?

Posted on May 16, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

In this post, Prof. Marlon Dumas describes new techniques that efficiently compute the current state of a business process from event logs of ongoing cases. Replaying event logs interactively from any point in time, you fast-forward to any time point, and you can determine where exactly to put the tokens to start a log animation from that time point. Initializing business process simulations in real time based on the current process state of ongoing cases, for example, to support runtime decision support. This paves the way for high-performance digital twins in process mining and operational monitoring. Link

Posted in Business Processes, Event-driven, Human-Machine Interaction, Process Mining | Leave a comment

AI Protects Against Scams

Posted on May 11, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Online and phone scams, some of them powered by generative AI tools, surged in 2024 and continue to rise. Now, Google is deploying some of its latest AI models to help protect users from these threats. One such model is Gemini Nano, a lightweight AI that can run directly on a user’s device.

Now, when a Chrome user enables Enhanced Protection mode in Safe Browsing—the browser’s highest security setting—the Nano model runs locally to scan web content for signs of fraud. It can recognize common scam tactics, such as bad actors posing as remote technical support staff, a tactic Google says is becoming increasingly common. The model is also capable of detecting novel scams it hasn’t encountered before.

Google says it plans to use the on-device AI scam protection in the browser on mobile Android devices in the future, and to expand the detection to more types of scams. Google already uses on-device AI to detect scams in other mobile apps. The company recently began warning Android users of possible scams within text messages and phone calls. Link

Posted in Artificial Intelligence, Fraud Prevention | Leave a comment

Challenge May-2025 “Risky Stocks”

Posted on May 1, 2025 by jacobfeldman

You need to create a decision service that decides whether to buy certain stocks or not. Here are the guiding rules:
Rule 1: Stock in debt is considered risky.
Rule 2: Stocks in fusion with other stocks may be risky.
Rule 3: Stock in fusion with a strong stock is not risky.
Rule 4: Do not buy risky stocks unless they have a good price.
Keep in mind that more rules that conflict with some of these rules can be added later. Link

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