Category Archives: Uncertainty

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Posted on July 6, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Uncertainty is the environment in which our decision models frequently operate. What drives real decisions under real uncertainty? Adam DeJans Jr. unpacks why most “optimization” efforts fail under real-world uncertainty in the 5-part mini-series: Optimization under uncertainty needs to be … Continue reading →

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It’s better to be approximately right than precisely wrong

Posted on May 28, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

This statement is from the post by Adam DeJans Jr: “I’ve worked with many companies (from logistics to manufacturing) and one pattern stands out. There’s often too much emphasis on improving forecast accuracy, and too little thought about what really … Continue reading →

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Decision-making under uncertainty

Posted on March 2, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Meinolf Sellman: “The key to efficiency and smooth, low-cost, and low-surprise operations is to make better decisions. And that has always been the objective of AI. Not the silly chatbot AI that you see being hyped. Not the expensive AI … Continue reading →

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Making decisions within an uncertain environment

Posted on July 23, 2024 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Warren Powell provided interesting comments the the latest NY Times article “When it comes to math, AI is dumb” that states: “Early computers followed rules. AI follows probabilities. But in mathematics, there is no probable answer, only the right one”. Probabilists … Continue reading →

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Focus on Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Posted on March 24, 2024 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Meinoff Sellmann, a well-known expert in Operation Research (OR), gives this advice: “No surfer has ever surfed a wave by paddling to a place where others are already surfing the tube. In 2024, generative AI is the latest fashion. And … Continue reading →

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Decision-making under uncertainty

Posted on December 3, 2023 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Making decisions under uncertainty is hard. The best course of action can be very counter-intuitive. Meinolf Sellmann provided a good example that illustrates this. His article “A Tale of Two Coffees” showcases a tool that cuts through the uncertainty, even … Continue reading →

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