Category Archives: Uncertainty

Stop pretending deterministic is good enough

Posted on December 6, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

This is a phrase from the latest post by Adam DeJans Jr. “We all know the world is uncertain. But what are you actually doing about it? Most of us? Running deterministic optimization and crossing our fingers. You KNOW your … Continue reading →

Posted in Decision Modeling, Digital Decisioning, Optimization, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Challenge Dec-2025 “Inside/Outside Production”

Posted on November 27, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

You need to help a manufacturer decide how much of each demanded product should be produced internally and how much should be sourced from outside. Whether a product is made inside or outside, it has an associated cost. A product … Continue reading →

Posted in Challenges, Decision Modeling, Optimization, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Never Ignore Uncertainty

Posted on November 12, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Several important points made by Dr. Meinolf Sellmann:

Posted in Decision Making, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Maximizing Minimum Profit while Minimizing Maximum Regret

Posted on November 10, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Dr. Meinolf Sellman shared a decision problem that deals with planning crop growth without knowing the weather. His solution is based on the proprietary multi-objective optimization that helps to find a rational compromise between maximizing the minimum profit and minimizing … Continue reading →

Posted in Algortithms, Optimization, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Decisions vs Policies

Posted on October 23, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

The latest post by Adam DeJans Jr. is so important that we decided to reproduce it here. He questions whether we always need a model to make a decision and describes the essential difference between decisions and policies. “A decision … Continue reading →

Posted in Decision Intelligence, Decision Making, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

LION20: The 20th Learning and Intelligent OptimizatioN Conference

Posted on October 9, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

The 20th Learning and Intelligent Optimization Conference (LION) will be held on 15-19 June 2026, in Milan, Italy. It will include a special session: LEARNING AND OPTIMIZATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY FOR DYNAMIC AUTONOMOUS NAVIGATION. https://www.lion20.org/

Posted in Machine Learning, Optimization, Uncertainty | 1 Comment

Making Operational Repetitive Decisions Under Uncertainty

Posted on October 1, 2025 by jacobfeldman

While just completed DecisionCAMP-2025 was dominated by the integrated use of Generative AI (LLMs) and Symbolic AI (Rules, Machine Learning, Optimization), in my closing notes I concentrated on the topic of making repetitive operational decisions in the real-world, frequently uncertain environments. In this article, I … Continue reading →

Posted in Decision Intelligence, Decision Making, Forecasting, Machine Learning, Optimization, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Meta-Decision Support

Posted on July 26, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Adam DeJans Jr.: “What if we treated the design of metrics, thresholds, and goals as decisions that need feedback loops and learning just like any other policy? That’s where I think the future lies. Meta-decision support: helping leaders choose what … Continue reading →

Posted in Decision Modeling, Decision Monitoring, Decision Optimization, Supply Chain, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Posted on July 6, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

Uncertainty is the environment in which our decision models frequently operate. What drives real decisions under real uncertainty? Adam DeJans Jr. unpacks why most “optimization” efforts fail under real-world uncertainty in the 5-part mini-series: Optimization under uncertainty needs to be … Continue reading →

Posted in Decision Intelligence, Decision Making, Optimization, Uncertainty | Leave a comment

It’s better to be approximately right than precisely wrong

Posted on May 28, 2025 by decisionmanagementcommunity

This statement is from the post by Adam DeJans Jr: “I’ve worked with many companies (from logistics to manufacturing) and one pattern stands out. There’s often too much emphasis on improving forecast accuracy, and too little thought about what really … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting, Uncertainty | Leave a comment